Let’s talk about every Fulham fan’s favourite team. Brentford. Yes, Brentford. The plucky outfit from down the road that has risen from the depths of League One to the brink of the Premier League over the past decade, despite regularly selling their best players. What is the key to their success? And how can Fulham learn from it?
First of all, to understand the key to Brentford’s success, you must understand game theory, as well as how it is applied to football business. In simple terms, game theory is the mathematical analysis of decision making in competitive circumstances. You don’t really need to know much more than that, but you’ll have to understand how it affects a football club and how the operate.
Off of the pitch, game theory can be applied to football clubs in one-off events, such as the negotiation of a transfer or a contract, as well as the entire outlook on football which a club possesses and how that impacts upon their strategy.
In Fulham’s case, the club has a ‘finite’ game theory. That is a short-term strategy focussing on the event at the end of the season. Namely, promotion to or survival in the Premier League. Therefore, the club takes actions based on these objectives, such as 2018/19’s high transfer spend and then sacking of both Jokanovic and Ranieri in an effort to avoid the drop. However, as we are finding out now, this is detrimental for the future.
This is because Fulham are caught in a cycle caused by the huge broadcast revenues in the Premier League and the relative financial poverty of the Championship. The massive returns that come with being in the Premier League mean that the top flight regulars are comfortably established. Promoted clubs often find that they must spend big to be able to compete. Otherwise, in the cases of Norwich and SC Paderborn, they will spend little instead recouping the one-off top-flight revenue in order to build for the future.
If the promoted clubs who spend big fail to survive, they become trapped in an ongoing ‘yo-yo club’ cycle, as their costs are too high for the Championship and therefore must focus on a short-term plan of promotion back to the Premier League to avoid financial ruin. However, this short-termism is detrimental for the future, trapping the club in said cycle.
So, this is the situation that Fulham is in, but how can we learn from our next-door neighbours?
Since gambling magnate, Matthew Benham, assumed full control of Brentford in 2012, the club has instilled the same values that has made him so successful at playing the bookies. This involves trusting the numbers and writing off any short-term setbacks in favour of sticking to the long-term ‘infinite’ plan. In other words, they have patience in their project which uses slow and sustainable growth as they look past the end of the current season.
Brentford have a well-documented ‘Moneyball’ style of recruitment, involving recruiting players who other players have missed via statistical analysis. However, it is their plan after the simple recruitment which is the genius and that really differentiates Brentford and Fulham’s moneyball techniques.
First of all, Brentford aim for low cost, high reward transfers, aiming to uncover young hidden gems to develop and integrate into the side over multiple years. Whereas, under Tony Khan, Fulham’s strategy has been to identify players to buy using stats, with seemingly little thought to cost or age – as long as they are under 28.
It is the slow development and integration of talent which makes Brentford successful, as the player learns the club culture and playing philosophy through the B team and by working with players further ahead of them in their development cycle. It is this slow, patient approach with unparalleled continuity that breeds success into the future.
For example, after the play off final, Brentford sold Ollie Watkins and Said Benramah, two of their best players, for huge fees and impressive profits. They kept Thomas Frank as their manager and picked up Ivan Toney from Peterborough for just £5 million – an impressively low fee for a player who is currently the league’s top scorer. They also promoted Sergi Canos to a starting role, to replace Benramah, who they have been slowly developing through the B team and then first team since 2017. They have also promoted Marcus Forss, a highly rated young prospect, to a rotational role at centre forward. Marcus Forss is now learning from Ivan Toney and has worked alongside the other Griffin Park success stories like Watkins and Neal Maupay since he joined the club in 2017.
Brentford have managed all of this change whilst remaining one of the Championship’s top sides – currently third in the table on an eighteen-match unbeaten run. They undoubtedly contingency plans to replace every player in their squad as they leave for bigger clubs and it is this consistency that is key. It is a testament to their long-term planning and project as they have committed to incremental improvement whilst leaving within their means. Although the final step has so far eluded them, I can’t help but feel that they will eventually become an established top flight team capable of punching above their weight, even if it takes another decade.
So, what can Fulham learn from this? The first objective has to be breaking the ‘yo-yo club’ cycle. This can be done either by avoiding relegation from the Premier League long enough to become an established side that is comfortably better than any newly promoted teams each year, or by spending a few seasons in the Championship to develop and implement a long-term strategy that promotes low and sustainable growth. Whilst I’m sure that the second is the less popular option amongst fans, it might prove more profitable in the longer term.
To implement this plan, Fulham should shift their recruitment strategy to something more similar to Brentford. The club already heavily uses data within its recruitment, so it just needs a slight change in what to look for. We have seen from the summer window that low cost ‘uncovered gem’ signings utilise Tony’s data system more effectively than the high cost signings that we have previously seen – witness the success of integrating Tosin Adarabioyo into the first team, for example.
However, not only should Fulham be looking to buy cheap young talent, but we should be looking to develop the talent that we produce from our academy. This is a massive strength over Brentford, who scrapped their academy some years ago, and if done correctly we could see youth players constantly breaking into the first team – similar to Southampton in recent years. Ryan Sessegnon is the only real success story from the academy in recent years as players are rarely trusted in the first team, due to our short-term plan. We have seen brilliant prospects leave in recent years – O’Riley, Elliott, Dembele and Drameh for example. If the club gave youth its head and allowed a young manager more freedom without being worried about the impact of relegation then some of these talents might thrive. What’s more, any youth player sales are financially deemed as pure profit – where is the downside?
Finally, could the club restructure and add people with footballing experience to help with workloads and decision making? Could a technical director and a vice-director of football help avoid the mistakes from the past and implement a long-term strategy? Someone with the knowledge and experience being added into the mix couldn’t hurt – especially if it allows the club to complete transfers faster.
The Premier League is clearly the place to be and we all hope that Fulham can stage a recovery to remain among English football’s elite, but if dropping into the Championship prompts a rethink that persuades the club to pursue a long-term plan to achieve sustainability it could deliver real rewards. On the bright side, those glorious Championship away days are better, aren’t they?
A very balanced article the problem for you guys is that the man at the top is in for personal glory where as matthew is a supporter who knows his limitations and has assembled a very astute managment team unless he learns from his mistakes he will keep on repeating them
A good article. The interesting question is, does the Brentford model work in the Premier League? How do they avoid being a yo yo club? Can their team, aside from a few stars, compete in the Premier League.
I would suggest that the gap between League 1 and the championship is manageable, demonstrated by the clubs which make the transition (Luton is a current example) the gap Championship to Premier League is wider.
I may be proved wrong about Brentford, I’m not sure they are a model. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t unearth hidden gems as the signings of Tosin, Tete and Robinson demonstrate.
Great article. It ain’t rocket science. Winning the playoff last season was not a success; it was clear that another 2/3 seasons and some thoughtful development of the infrastructure were essential for the long term welfare of the club. Kindest thing Khan could do for Fulham would be either to plan for success on a medium to long term basis or, if he is set on the policy of immediate returns, et Daddy to sell the club and move to Las Vegas. Interesting that his observations about the FFP system, which is there to protect the game, don’t include any acceptance of responsibility for why he got us into that situation in the first place.
as impressive as Brentford are their cycle does have down sides, the hangover is becoming a feeder club, many Prem clubs have continued to have issues with the feeder club role when in the premier league, the flow of new talent in this style is a high risk process and once in the premier, quality of talent available to mid or lower league position teams becomes limited.
I hope this is not the case at Brentford!
Good article. However, Brentford dispensed with their Academy because they spent years developing their young players only to have big clubs signing them for a fee which in no way reflected the cost of their development.
Excellent article; one of many this week. Good stuff. Keep it up.
It echoes what I have been saying for a while.
Most certainly, a long term strategy in all areas is key and, up to a point, the Brentford model is a very good one. The point being if they ever succeed in gaining promotion.
It’s no secret that Scott Parker was under a great deal of pressure to get us back up at the first attempt. His relief and emotion was palpable as the final whistle blew at Wembley.
For the Khans, not gaining promotion was never an option.
Great disappointment in the Brentford camp, of course, but they just dusted themselves off and went about their business securing a great fee for Watkins, a loan fee for Benrahma-since converted into another great transfer fee and quietly brought in the guy that they had been tracking, according to Matthew Benham, for 100 games; Ivan Toney. Oh yes, and they managed to build and move into a brand new stadium. No financial concerns because of their long term strategy.
None of the three mentioned players are world class but they are all good enough to have increased their value massively.
The Brentford team is not good enough to be guaranteed promotion. But they will always be thereabouts.
Selling the club’s best players on a regular basis can’t be good for fans’ morale.
The dilemma will come if and when Brentford do reach the Premiership. If they had been successful at Wembley instead of us, would they have held on to their two most coveted players? Would Toney have got a look in? What would they have done without the 50m that Watkins and Benrahma brought in?
We’ll never know what their strategy had allowed for this eventuality and won’t know until it actually happens and, until then, the model, as good as it functions for them as a Championship club, is still in question.
However, it is a clearly laid out strategy that everybody at the club buys into and far removed from the Khan’s chaotic, guessing game that has proved very hit and miss for far too long.
It is a good, thoughtful article.
However, will the fans just accept 2 or 3 years in the Championship without success while a new ethos is built? As most can’t cope with half a dozen unsuccessful matches I don’t think Khan or Parker would be able to take the Brentford approach without calls for both heads!.
If we go down which is very likely players such as Ream,Odol,Hector and Royal will be back in the team and with other players under contract they would be favourites to come back up again,would it be different next time?,I doubt it not the way fulham do business in the transfer market
Great article again. I am as frustrated as all with the position we find ourselves in after the £100 million relegation nightmare and the FFP results. Has Khan not learned to an extent already however? Going up last year we didn’t really spend much. Getting up even if we go back down will have dramatically helped in balancing the books with the extra money earned in combination with spending very little. This bit of yo yo then has surely helped balancing the books and for me has put us in a better position moving forward than we would have been if we hadn’t got promoted. He has signed brilliant young players for next to nothing in Reed, tosin, Robinson and tête. I believe we have the youngest team in the premier league and they play with a real maturity beyond their years showing their quality….we just can’t score! If we keep all these young signings we have a huge chance of going back up and building a team for the future. We seem to be sticking with Scott no matter what rather than the old sacking culture which I agree with….the players all seem to completely believe in him which shows as no one can fault effort on the pitch. If we sell we will make huge profits to help balance the books even further and to give money to further invest in top young talent if he has realised and sticks with this. He has also used the loan system brilliantly this year avoiding more huge debts if we are to go down. He did however before this revelation of buying top young talent for next to nothing sign a useless ageing knockhart for £10 million and I just can’t understand that. We do have owners with huge resources compared to many so there is an expectation from us all that we do spend to be successful. The key is that this is done sensibly on the right players. I am hoping that after knockhart the penny seems to have dropped as even if we do go down the great young signings that we have made for me put us in a much better position.