A break from all the Europa League build-up for a moment.
Rich likes his numbers. A lot. The first time I read this article last night, my head hurt. But when I read it again this morning it was very interesting. Particularly for the point that ‘L,’ who enlightened us to just how many shots Bobby and Clint have been taking in games this season a week or so ago, makes in the comments, which is that with the sesnationalist nature of press reporting over here all that matters is the last result.
Taking an ice hockey article and adapting the methodology to football has its potential problems. It looks at the differential between how many shots and we take and how many we allow. At the moment, Fulham are -2, but if we allow for just how adventurous we’ve been in recent games, that number could change. The analysis has interesting consequences for the rest of the Premier League sides too.
The reason I like numbers is because opinions only go so far. You end up with “well that’s my opinion”, etc, no matter how poorly informed that opinion might be, and go round in circles. Now of course, numbers have limitations too, but they also bring new things to the table. Nobody can say “I disagree with those numbers” (although they can dismiss the subsequent interpretation). So yeah, an ice hockey borrow is problematic, but I also know that this is how the Times people work (the folks behind the Castrol Index) – this is why I added shots on target instead of just shots – the Times say that this is where their long-term projections come from, having tested various things (including goals, which are much more subject to random variation because they are so rare, so are in many ways poor predictors).
Worth stressing that it’s -2 per game. For us it just shows that we’re about par, but when Chelsea are getting 13 more shots than they’re allowing, every match, well that’s pretty serious isn’t it? You look at how big an advantage they have in this over other sides and wonder if anyone can get near them. It’s early days, of course.
I find Finkelstein a little too formulaic though. It’s interesting how people interpret the stats produced, because they are bound to be some anomalies.
The Chelsea stat isn’t particularly surprising to be honest. I don’t think United have hit top gear in the league at all this season and they’d be the ones who you would think could challenge that supremacy, especially at home.
The fact is that we’re creating a lot more chances this year without sacrificing too much of our defensive solidity, which suggests that Roy is able to move his systems on season-by-season.
Isn’t this shots allowed thing a little too crude? You could have a really strong defensive organisation that restricts teams to shots from long distance. If they had a bit of possession, they could have 5 or so in a half that trickled through – or otherwise – to the keeper, thereby diminshing your position in these ratings.
that’s where the shots on target thing is important. Because we are organised it means there are fewer unpressured shots, so fewer are on target. And the further out you shoot the less accurate you are. Danny Murphy fell victim to this over a couple of seasons (last two) and Clint was the same this year, shooting from miles out and not hitting the target.