Select Page

Buy High and Sell Low: The Economics of Fulham’s Relegation

The drawbridge is about to rise and another transfer window set to close. With that in mind, a quote in Felix Magath’s latest letter where he claims Fulham were quoted £12m for a Championship goalkeeper has left me wondering why Fulham seem to have so much trouble when it comes to selling players? We either seem to give them away on the cheap or can’t sell them at all?

This might actually be a false assumption. When it comes to transfers, appearances can be deceiving and reports in the press can be highly deceiving. Comparing one deal to another is a fool’s errand at the best of times, let alone without the full facts to play with. Seeing one well respected journalist tweet a comparison between the transfers of Ross McCormack and Xabi Alonso today shows the ease at which transfer stories can be manipulated and misinterpreted.

However, one undeniable fact is that, on the face of it, Fulham have for a while now, appeared to under-value our players when it comes time to show them the exit. Felix Magath’s £12m goalkeeper claim comes in stark contrast to the sale of David Stockdale to Brighton for a paltry £1m. Bryan Ruiz reportedly has a £3m price tag around his neck despite costing £11m and starring at the World Cup, while Kostas Mitroglou seems to have been linked to every team in Europe with nobody yet willing to pay us what we paid for him seven months ago.

club-bet-david-stockdale-brighton-hove-albion_3182956

So why then, do Fulham appear to come off on the bad end of these deals?

Communication (or-lack thereof)

Under the club’s current communications regime it is safe to say there has been a reluctance to share information. We may have actually profited on some deals, but Fulham could have sold Ashkan Dejagah to Qatari side Al Arabi for half of Doha and 50,000 barrels of crude oil and we’d still be told it was an undisclosed fee. The need-to-know basis on which information has been shared with fans and journalists over the past few years has restricted the flow of facts to the very minimum. This has led to rampant speculation amongst fans and a need to get information from other sources for journalists. Hence the talk of Ross McCormack’s fee being £11m coming from the Massimo Cellino spin machine at Leeds. With no retort from Fulham is it any wonder we’ve been the butt of so many ill-fated comparisons so far this summer.

*Of course there must be reason to Fulham’s methods, indeed one can’t help but think this week’s tub-thumping bout of verbal mud-slinging between Felix Magath, Shahid Khan and former owner Mohamad Al-Fayed has come about thanks to an apparent bypass of the club communication team. Although, while the public blame game has now turned somewhat unsavoury, it is at least nice to see Fulham actually make the papers. With perpetual undisclosed fees and player quotes normally coming straight from watered-down club website PR puff pieces this change of tact is at least a tiny bit refreshing.

Selling at the wrong time

Part of the blame for Fulham having to sell low is that we’re currently obvious sellers. Having been relegated and left with disillusioned players, Fulham’s negotiation poker face has been turned into a blank stare. When buyers know you want to sell, there is no incentive to pay fair value, let alone over-pay. The transfer window system has made the entire business of negotiating player movement one giant game of chicken. Unfortunately for us it is usually the party in the more eager position that blinks first. Fulham have been panic buyers in previous windows and are facing the prospect of being panic sellers on Monday.

An example is Bryan Ruiz in whom Fulham have a player they do not wish to keep, and one who himself does not wish to stay. With a year left on his contract, Bryan currently resembles a used car, if he stays at the club a minute past the transfer deadline, his value will plummet below its already deflated asking price.

Bryan Ruiz

Selling the wrong stock

Of course you can’t sell what you don’t have. Unless Alistair Mackintosh is sat at Motspur Park practicing his best Jordan Belfort impression, there is little chance of him conjuring up any miracle transfer fees. Of the playing staff from last season there was barely a player of decent value amongst them. Most were old and suffering from a decline in performance even Mohamed Al-Fayed’s ‘peppermints’ would have struggled to fix. The younger ones were nearly all played sparingly or out-of-position by Fulham’s cavalcade of different managers, diminishing any prospect of generating future hope value.

Those that did command fees on departure mostly left under the aforementioned iron curtain of undisclosed ambiguity, such as Kasami and Dejagah. Others, like Stockdale, were reportedly sold disaffected and un-wanted. It’s the exact method Roy Hodgson used so brilliantly to acquire the likes of Etuhu and Murphy for us in exchange for little more than a few grains of sand.

The outward transfer of Kerim Frei in 2012 was a prime example on the face of it. Our brightest academy prospect at the time, he left for Besiktas under-valued and over-weight. Players must be nurtured in order to yield magic beans come transfer windows and up till now the pressures of Premier League football have prevented that from truly taking place.

kendimi-turk-gibi-hissediyorum

One look at Southampton this summer though and we can see where Fulham might be in a few years in terms of transfer fees received. There is little to suggest that the likes of Roberts, Woodrow, Dembele, Hyndman, Bettinelli and Burgess don’t have the talent to emulate the Lallana, Shaw, Forster, Chambers and Schneiderlin’s of the world in years to come. Given the right environment and regular game time these players could command significant fees in the future. Of course not every young player has the potential to be bought for £20m but it’s amazing the value that big clubs will place of young players who have actually played.

Negotiation

Alistair Mackintosh has always had a good reputation when it comes to negotiating. There often seemed a “take it or leave it” hard-line stance to our negotiations. We rarely usurped other teams when buying, and when we wanted rid of players we sold them with little fuss and fanfare. The Jol years slowly seemed to change that though and the now infamous Dembele & Dempsey summer was particular disastrous. The Belgian’s release clause was set at the frustratingly realistic sum of £15m, while we were surreptitiously held to ransom by a wantaway Dempsey. Of course, none of us know whether Mousa’s release clause was a condition of his transfer from AZ Alkmaar in the first place, but it was hard not to feel as if a part of Fulham’s soul got burned that fateful August week in 2012.

Whether you bear in mind the fact he largely dealt himself the hand in front of him, considering what he had to work with our CEO did actually do quite well to get any return on some transfers. Getting Monaco and Valencia to absorb the contracts of Dimitar Berbatov and Philippe Senderos felt a bit like giving a piece of rubbish to someone else to put in the bin. That both players are actually now playing at a higher level above and beyond their performances for Fulham is more a testament to our lack of decent coaching and management than anyone’s negotiation skill.

Ashkan Dejagah was sold almost immediately following a stellar World Cup and you rather feel we missed a trick not selling Bryan from a beachside cabana in Brazil while his stock was at its highest in July.

Currency

There is one other factor making sales difficult, foreign exchange. The British Pound is incredibly strong at present. The value of £1 Sterling has risen 10 cents from €1.16 to €1.26 in last year.

image006

If you consider Bryan Ruiz’s reported asking price of £3m, currency fluctuations over the past 12 months would mean an increases cost of £300,000 (or €380,000) for a continental European buyer. If we also consider that Ruiz is likely to command anywhere up to £40,000 a week, currency movement alone has increased his wage by £208,000 a year (€262,000). Over the course of a four year contract that’s an additional £1,150,000 in total cost for a European team looking to buy Bryan. If you consider then that the majority of our more expensive players would be targets for clubs in the Eurozone (as opposed to domestic £GBP sales) and combine that with players’ ages, contract length and desire to leave along with our position as known sellers, the only realistic outcome is that asking prices become reduced.

Similarly, why would a club like Werder Bremen who are struggling financially mess around structuring a transfer deal in multiple currencies when they have the option not to?

It is cheaper for European countries to sign players from areas where the Euro is the stronger currency. It is perhaps then no surprise that we discover Werder Bremen’s biggest transfer outlay this summer has been €1m on Argentinean defender Santiago Garcia from Chilean club Rangers Talca. The Euro has risen almost 20% against the Chilean Peso in the past year. As Garcia was signed at a pre-agreed price following a loan spell, were the fee agreed in Pesos at the start of the deal, he would have been €200,000 cheaper at the end of his loan deal than at the start. Though that transfer was likely hedged against currency movement, the point still stands that it will always be easier to import to a strong currency than export to places with a weaker currency.

Relativity

The final point is that relative value is generated in each particular market. This is not necessarily a currency point and more a multi-layered question as to a player’s style, experience and perceived compatibility to a particular league. Does a £1,000,000 fee in England for one player equate to a €1,000,000 fee or a €1,260,000 fee for an identical player in Europe? Is it a question of currency or relativity? With the in-built wealth present in the English game, it is inherently a question of relativity.

The highest transfer fee paid domestically in England this summer was the £30m paid by Manchester United for teenage left back Luke Shaw from Southampton. The biggest domestic fee in Germany on the other hand was the €14m paid by Bayer Leverkusen for Hamburg attacking midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu. The highest fee in Italy was €22m, paid by Roma for Argentinean winger Juan Iturrbe from Hellas Verona, however, Hellas themselves had simultaneously exorcised a €15m purchase option in Iturrbe’s loan from Porto in order to cash in on a player who had taken immediately to Serie A. The Iturrbe deal aside, the next highest domestic fees in Italy were the equal €5.5m deals Lazio completed for Dusan Basta and Marco Parolo respectively, while the highest in Spain was the €20m Barcelona paid Valencia for experienced French centre half Jeremy Mathieu.

Would any of those transfer fees have been as high if there were only foreign clubs in for the players? Maybe as each players value comes as a result of supply and demand, but as long as there’s a player who’s a proven commodity in any particular league, demand for signature will always be higher. This explains the Ross McCormack price as he is worth more to a team in the Championship, where he is proven, than a team in the Premiership where he’d present a risk.

The magnitude of those domestic European deals serves to reinforce the assertion that the intrinsic value held within the English game places it at a premium above its European rivals. For a smaller club like Fulham looking to the European markets to sell, this premium can make it incredibly difficult to sell unless our expectations of fees received come down.

When you put all these together, perhaps it’s little wonder that Fulham haven’t been able to cash in this summer.

COYW

Jol salutes Stockdale’s spirit

Martin Jol praised Fulham goalkeeper David Stockdale for putting his slip-ups against Swansea to the back of his mind and producing a stellar display at West Bromwich Albion as the Whites recorded only their second away win of the campaign.

Stockdale’s miscued clearance allowed Jonathan De Guzman to put the Swans out of sight at Craven Cottage on Saturday but, with Mark Schwarzer still troubled by a neck injury, the 27 year-old was far more assured at the Hawthorns and produced a pair of excellent saves from Romelu Lukaku when the New Year’s Day clash was level at 1-1.

I was very happy for him. Against Swansea (on Saturday) I think we deserved the three points more than at Albion. Because of a couple of mistakes, we didn’t look very good and that was very disappointing for him and for us because we know that he’s a fantastic goalkeeper.

Against West Brom, luck was on his side and I’m very happy for David and for the team that we could get the three points because we really needed them. We had five or six draws away from home so you can’t say that we’ve done awful but the only win we had was a long time ago, at Wigan.

Swansea profit from Stockdale’s slips

Football’s a cruel game. David Stockdale, once considered a suitable successor to Joe Hart by Fabio Capello, returned to Craven Cottage after Fulham cut short his loan spell at Hull, will be reflecting on what might have been after his first Premier League start in almost a year went horribly wrong. Having replaced Mark Schwarzer, Stockdale’s ungainly flap afforded Danny Graham the chance to athletically profit from a tame cross from Nathan Dyer and, then, with Fulham pressing for an equaliser early in the second half, cannoned a routine clearance into Brede Hangeland, with disastrous consequences as Pablo Hernandez played in Jonathan de Guzman for Swansea’s second goal.

It would be harsh to blame Fulham’s latest setback solely on Stockdale, who also saved smartly from Graham and de Guzman later in the second period, but the mistakes visibly affected a side already low on confidence. Martin Jol had made six changes from the side held by Southampton on Boxing Day and his reshaped began brightly with Bryan Ruiz shining brightly on his first start in six weeks, floating behind Dimitar Bebartov. The pair combined in the eleventh minute with the Bulgarian volleying over the crossbar having fought to reach Ruiz’s deep cross and Kerim Frei, making his first start of the campaign, might have equalised moments after Graham’s opener when he dragged a left-footed effort across the face of goal.

Graham’s opener severely dented Fulham’s confidence and the home side were lucky not to be down to ten men midway through the first half when Giorgios Karagounis was fortunate to be shown only a yellow card by referee Andre Marriner. Michael Laudrup, who rotated his Swansea squad with the busy festive fixture list in mind, set his side up ideally for the counter attack and the pace of Dyer and former Fulham loanee Wayne Routledge unsettled the already shaky Fulham rearguard. Gerhard Tremmel, who kept goal in place of the fit-again Michel Vorm, palmed away a Ruiz curler and watched two of his free-kicks drift inches off target either side of the interval.

Swansea made light of the absence of their leading scorer Michu, especially once de Guzman had capitalised on Stockdale’s calamitous clearance. It followed the first prolonged period of Fulham pressure of the match, but Jol’s side showed admirable resolve as the rain poured down. Tremmel clawed away a Ruiz drive and the German stand-in goalkeeper was only beaten in controversial fashion a minute later. Berbatov’s header crashed off the bar and, although Ruiz’s follow-up was goalbound, it only entered the net having struck the offside Sascha Riether on its way into the net. Sian Massey’s flag stayed down and Fulham had a lifeline.

The hosts finally played at the kind of tempo that had troubled Swansea in the early stages of the contest. When Tremmel spilled a speculative strike from Karagounis, Massey’s flag correctly signalled that Berbatov had ventured into an offside position this time. Fulham fashioned further opportunities with Ashkan Dejagah failing to produce a final ball or a finish prior to being withdrawn in favour of Hugo Rodallega and Tremmel smothered strikes from Frei and Karagounis. Jol pushed Hangeland forward late in the piece to try and salvage a point – but the closest Fulham came was an injury-time header from Berbatov that floated wide.

FULHAM (4-2-3-1): Stockdale; Riether, Briggs, Hughes, Hangeland; Karagounis, Sidwell; Dejagah (Rodallega 76), Frei (Senderos 84), Ruiz; Berbatov. Subs (not used): Etheridge, Kelly, Riise, Baird, Richardson.

BOOKED: Karagounis, Sidwell.

GOAL: Ruiz (56).

SWANSEA CITY (4-2-3-1): Tremmel; Rangel, Tiendalli, Williams, Monk; Agustien (Britton 82), de Guzman; Routledge (Ki Sung-Yeung 45), Pablo (Davies 66), Dyer; Graham. Subs (not used): Vorm, Bartley, Schechter, Moore.

BOOKED: Agustien.

GOALS: Graham (19), de Guzman (52).

REFEREE: Andre Marriner.

ATTENDANCE: 25,700

 

Jol: No approaches for Stockdale

Martin Jol revealed that Fulham have yet to receive any interest from clubs keen on taking David Stockdale on loan.

The 26 year-old goalkeeper, who has lost his place in the first team now that Mark Schwarzer has returned from injury, was left out of the England squad to face Holland in a friendly at the end of the month today and Jol has previously talked about sending his number two out on loan again so that he is playing regular football.

I would consider it, but nobody has made an approach. I’ve got four good keepers.

 

Stockdale misses out on England squad

Fulham goalkeeper David Stockdale has been left out of Stuart Pearce’s England squad to face Holland in a friendly later this month.

Stockdale had been a regular in Fabio Capello’s squads before the Italian resigned abruptly last month but Pearce, in charge on a caretaker basis while the FA look to appoint a successor to Capello, has recalled the West Ham goalkeeper Robert Green. Stockdale, who made ten appearances for Fulham after being recalled from his loan spell at Ipswich, has recently lost his place in Martin Jol’s starting line-up to the returning Mark Schwarzer. Reacting to the news, Stockdale tweeted:

Disappointed but means I must work harder!!!

There is no place for former Fulham striker Bobby Zamora, who joined QPR at the end of January. Pearce has preferred to include Sunderland striker Frazier Campbell – and has also omitted Rio Ferdinand and Frank Lampard.

FULL ENGLAND SQUAD – GOALKEEPERS: Scott Carson (Bursaspor), Joe Hart (Manchester City), Robert Green (West Ham United).

DEFENDERS: Gary Cahill (Chelsea), Ashley Cole (Chelsea), Leighton Baines (Everton), Glen Johnson(Liverpool), Phil Jones (Manchester United), Micah Richards (Manchester City), Chris Smalling(Manchester United), Kyle Walker (Tottenham Hotspur).

MIDFIELDERS: Gareth Barry (Manchester City), Tom Cleverley (Manchester United), Stewart Downing(Liverpool), Adam Johnson (Manchester City), Steven Gerrard (Liverpool), James Milner (Manchester City), Scott Parker (Tottenham Hotspur), Ashley Young (Manchester United), Theo Walcott (Arsenal).

FORWARDS: Darren Bent (Aston Villa), Fraizer Campbell (Sunderland), Daniel Sturridge (Chelsea),Wayne Rooney (Manchester United), Danny Welbeck (Manchester United).