As it stands, Fulham lie in 17th position, just two points above the relegation zone. Is this almost a case of second-season-syndrome? Obviously we have spent longer than two seasons in the Premiership, but last season we seemed almost an entirely different team from the relegation-threatened one that we were for the few seasons before, and I think it’s fair to say that we took quite a few teams by surprise with the quality and organisation of our play. Are we now suffering because, as has been suggested, teams have now worked us out?
Six points in six games is admittedly relegation form, but as Hodgson himself stated, it is important to look at the teams that we have already played. Even though Fulham finished the season in a superb 7th position, our first six games this season have already included four of the teams that finished above us. How many points were we seriously expected to get from these games?
Portsmouth admittedly were/are in disarray; Chelsea have a vastly superior side to us; and Villa away was always going to be more than tricky, especially considering the injuries we had. Despite the run that saw us beat Everton at home every year, they still finished in 5th last year, and ended that particular hoodoo in the final game of last season; Wolves seem to be a decent side at home, and we always struggle early on in the season away at newly-promoted clubs (see Hull and WBA last season); whilst Arsenal have been playing some superb football this year.
Perhaps a quick look at BBC’s “Lawro’s Predictions” might give some insight as to how we were expected to fare in our matches so far this season.
Portsmouth 0-2 Fulham
Fulham 1-2 Chelsea
Aston Villa 2-1 Fulham
Fulham 1-2 Everton
Wolves 2-1 Fulham
Fulham 1-2 Arsenal
So, if Lawrenson was correct, we have managed to double our expected tally already this season. I know a lot of people (and I include myself in this) don’t think that Lawrenson is exactly the best pundit in the world, but his predictions do indicate a rough guideline of what is expected of certain matches – and his predictions are probably fairly reflected by the odds in the bookies too.
The immediate future isn’t looking too great either. Of our next five league games, only two are at home, including one in which we host Liverpool. After that, we will have played five home games, four of which were against teams that finished in the top five last season. We will soon get home games that will be far more winnable, the first of which being Hull on the 19th. If we struggle in those games, then would be the right time to be concerned, not now. And if we continue to play like we did against Arsenal, we should have no trouble at all this season. It might not be as comfortable as the last one, and we might not finish in the top half, but we should be fine.
No need to panic. At least, not yet.
Interesting thoughts there Nick. I’m not sure that we’ve made a worse start than I would have expected.
To be honest, even with Portsmouth in such strife, I didn’t expect us to win at Fratton Park. There were times during that game that we seriously rode our luck. The Chelsea game was disappointing because we didn’t seem to go at them in the same manner as against Arsenal, but they have that extra bit of quality that always threatens to produce a goal.
Villa was always going to be a really tough ask – especially with the game coming so quickly after that game in Perm. The performance was a little lacklustre and I was nervy before Everton too, even more so after the first half, but we fought back well. Anything we get against the top sides is a bonus and, although the performance was pleasing against Arsenal, we didn’t have anything to show for our efforts.
Wolves was the only game that I came away from really upset at the tactics/performance. We’re about where I expected us to be points wise – and the game at West Ham on Sunday now becomes really important, which is why Roy’s team selection will be very interesting on Thursday. I seem to remember that we went from the relegation zone to the top half with a win over Newcastle last season so, as you say, it’s far too early panic.
I agree with you entirely. The Wolves game was annoying, but we could all see it coming – that’s exactly the type of game that we tend to lose. My one problem with our away performances is that we set our stall out to defend from the very outset. I would like to see us start out a bit more open – we can always be more defensive if the opposition are all over us, but we need to give ourselves a chance to dominate the game and win. If we can dominate Arsenal (albeit in a losing cause), there is little reason why our attacking football shouldn’t be able to cause teams like Wolves plenty of problems.
The West Ham game is going to be a big one – they’ve had a poor start to the season, and despite some handy performances from Cole and Robert Green, they aren’t playing too well. Having said that, I’d take a draw happily, considering that we never seem to get results against them. Three points would be a brilliant achievement. The Hull game afterwards is equally massive – and I can see our players being very eager to prove a point after they somehow took six points off us last season.
I wrote this on August 7th, Nick:
“Fearless prediction: European games will mean we’ll have games in hand. Playing fewer games means we’ll win fewer points. Having a tough start means we’ll win fewer points. We’ll be low in the league for a while, perhaps worryingly low. People get upset by this. But we’ll be okay in the end”
PS if you want to check bookies odds, google football data and download the spreadsheets they have there. Odds from all bookmakers before each game. I think if we did this (and I may when I get a moment) we’d be round about where we should be. I accept that the performances aren’t great, but will stick to my “we never look good losing” stance and wait for a few more games to come and go…
Rich, you were absolutely correct as ever. I just think now is a good time to reinforce that particular message – the current situation can seem rather bleak, and cause blind panic, demanding heads to roll and changes to be made when they don’t need to be.
George Harrison once sang “It isn’t always going to be this grey. All things must pass”. Fulham will be fine, we shouldn’t stay as lowly as 17th for long. We are more a victim of circumstance of the early season fixture list, rather than deserving to be where we are because of a multitude of poor performances. It’s not even October yet!
Keep up the excellent work on CCN.
I guess I just rather naively hoped that our early start in Europe might give us a little advantage when the league started as it did the last time we were involved in European competition.
I don’t go in for all this doom and gloom nonsense. We’ll have a far better idea of how things are going come November. If we’re in the bottom three then, the worrying is more understandable. I’ve got a feeling we might just nick something at Upton Park on Sunday though!