Following Fulham’s momentous win over league leaders Liverpool on Sunday, it looks like the race for European qualification might just be back on. Not only Marco Silva’s side find themselves well positioned in eighth place with seven games to go, Fulham are also one of the most in-form Premier League outfits, winning five of our last eight games.
So, what could Fulham be capable of achieving by the end of the campaign? Remarkably, the Cottagers are currently five points off fourth place, three points shy of ensuring a Europa League place and are occupying the likely Conference League spot. There are a number of potential permutations that come into play when considering which English sides could qualify for Europe – and the end of Newcastle United’s 70-year trophy drought last month means that if Eddie Howe’s charges finish in the top seven, the Conference League qualifying position could be re-allocated to the top flight’s eighth place finisher.
Fulham’s European ambitions would be well served if our FA Cup conquerers Crystal Palace don’t go on to win the world’s oldest club cup competition in May. Vengeance aside – after the Eagles easily dismantled us at the Cottage for the second time in the space of six weeks only a fortnight ago – the re-allocation of the Europa League qualifying spot to a highest league finisher (a la Newcastle in the League Cup) would reduce the pressure on Silva’s side to finish as high as possible. Say, Manchester City went on to win the FA Cup, that would be far more preferable than Palace doing so as Oliver Glasner’s men are unlikely to finish in the top six – however incredible their away form remains.
But Silva and squad have also spoken about breaking the club record number of Premier League points both in this and previous seasons. How many points will the Whites need to finish in the top eight? In the last five seasons, an average of 57.8 points has been enough and no club has finished on 60 points and not finished top that high since our near neighbours Queens Park Rangers in 1994 – so we can assume safely assume that 60 points is an appropriate bench mark.
But, following the brilliant win over Arne Slot’s side on Sunday, twelve points from Fulham’s remaining seven games probably looks like being enough. That isn’t to say it will be easy. Fulham are have been consistently inconsistent this season. The Whites have gone months unbeaten before dropping points against some of the weakest sides in the division whilst upsetting the teams pushing for honours at the other end of the table. Home draws against relegated Southampton, struggling Ipswich and a chastening defeat by Wolves should also mean that nobody should be resting on their laurels with seven finals to play, as Joachim Andersen said in the aftermath of Sunday’s success.
Where are the precious points going to come from? Two games leap out of the remaining fixtures as must wins – Southampton away and Everton at home. But Fulham are struggled against sides who have set up in a low block this season and it will require the kind of inventive attacking play that so surprised Liverpool and, probably a fair bit of patience, to pick up maximum points. That still leaves Silva’s side needing two wins from the remaining five games against sides like Bournemouth, Chelsea, Aston Villa or Manchester City – all probably still in the European hunt themselves – as well as Brentford. You’d think the most winnable game might be the one at GTech but Brentford away hasn’t been the happiest of hunting grounds for the Whites in recent years. If Fulham can pick up three points against Thomas Frank’s team – who might have little to play for except local pride by Gameweek 37 – it would make the task much easier.
The final three points would need to come from games where the Whites are favourites but Silva’s side have been springing surprises ever since the Portuguese head coach succeeded Scott Parker in SW6. They are proven adept at bouncing back from defeat and shocking the bigger names this season. Nobody would have predicted a win over Liverpool and results against the Cherries or Chelsea would certainly put the Whites in the driving seat. The chance to emulate one of the finest Fulham sides in the club’s history is right within our grasp and Silva’s side are only four wins away from achieving it. It could be one of the most exciting ends to a top-flight campaign London’s oldest professional side have ever seen – and you wouldn’t bet against a man like Marco making it happen.
