First things first, I know that as soon as this article, the club will announce a signing. That’s just sods law. But the question still remains, why haven’t Fulham signed anyone?
First of all, let me just explain that a lack of signings isn’t merely a Fulham problem, with just seven permanent fee-paying deals made so far with just two days to go. The Premier League and the rest of the footballing world has found itself in a rather unusual situation in this winter window, as has the world has for the past 11 months, lacking the usual busy month filled with extortionately priced transfers. In fact, the number of players that Fulham have been linked with this time around can probably be counted on both hands. For most clubs, the answer is due to COVID-19, of course, but Fulham seem to find themselves a bit deeper down the rabbit hole than others.
COVID-19 has obviously had a major impact on every football club and at every level. Matchday revenue, which is the most important revenue stream for football clubs as its regularity allows the payment of operating costs, has been eliminated due to the restrictions but in place to combat the virus. This has led to many clubs having to live off of the broadcasting and commercial revenues, that while much larger, come only once or perhaps twice per season. Consequently, clubs are reluctant to spend these revenue streams on more transfers and higher wage costs, with the Whites being no exception, whilst also demanding high transfer fees to sell any players to cover their costs, leading to a turgid transfer market.
Fulham may also be suffering from a lack of targets to pursue, especially with inflated prices and a lack of cash. Having been linked to relatively few players, it seems as though Fulham are in the hunt for a fairly rare player – a cheap, quick and prolific striker that is capable at the elite level. This is especially hard to find given the club’s favourability towards a loan deal, due to the risk of relegation, as the loaning club wouldn’t not even be compensated upfront to lose the player, other than perhaps a small loan fee, so cannot replace them themselves.
Therefore, the only affordable market at the moment for most clubs seems to be France. This is due to the collapse of the Ligue 1 TV deal, which some estimate will lose the league a total 1.3 billion Euros, with an average loss of 65 million Euros per team. With French clubs ready to offload star players to account for these losses, this is the reason why we have seen Fulham linked to Boulaye Dia, Moussa Dembele and now Josh Maja.
However, where Fulham differentiates from most clubs is the proximity in which the club seems to be operating close to the Financial Fair Play limit. Without going into too much detail and bamboozling everybody, the main costs that Fulham faces are ‘total staff costs’, mainly player wages, as well as the amortisation of transfer fees. Amortisation is how an initial cost is split over a set period of time, in this case a transfer fee split over a player’s contracted years at the club and if their contract is extended, the remaining amount is spread over the extension period.
Should Fulham stay up this season, the FFP limit for next season is an £83 million loss over the 3-year period. However, should Fulham be relegated, this will drop to just a £61 million loss over the 2019/20-2021/22 period. While this seems like a large amount, in footballing terms it is not. It is understood that Fulham may be operating close to this limit which explains the shrewd summer spending as well as the lack of transfers this window.
Hopefully the club is able to get someone in before the deadline on Monday, with a loan being preferable.
What are your opinions on the potential Josh Maja deal? And what other options would you consider?
well he’s not a prolific scorer, maybe he has other talents to offer? I would prefer we play Mitro so he can get his confidence and give one of our youngsters a chance, or Kebano whom for some reason is ignored by Parker but offers more than Cav and AK47 as an attacking option IMHO.
I agree I would play Kebano Mitro and Joe Bryan
Helpful article, thank-you.
So, still suffering from chaotic system used in Klinetime.
Play Mitro, no brainer Scotty!!!
If Scott can get Mitro back to form and fitness and working within the system then we have a great new player.
Your explanation certainly goes a long way towards explaining the situation currently; namely the inexplicable lack of a striker signing that would, almost certainly, ensure Premiership safety. Thanks for that.
However, it doesn’t disguise the fact that, for a very long time now, Tony Khan has made some truly bizarre transfer decisions that, seemingly, have placed our club in this precarious position.
The list is endless but includes the decision to buy Seri for a reputed 25m -what a disaster that has proven to be, the loan signings of Cavaleiro, Knockaert and Decordova Reid which, after we had seen firsthand, their lack of Championship quality, were turned into permanent deals. What a massive waste of money that has proven to be with the Knockaert deal, in particular, a real enigma. The guy is struggling to make the Nottingham Forest team and, when he does, the Forest fans get a taste of what we had to endure last season.
Before Fulham fans start protesting that Decordova Reid has been a good signing, I stress that this is my personal viewpoint after watching him closely. The odd flash of skill, the odd goal but, in the main, his only asset to the team has been his willingness to slot in wherever Parker wants him to-and not very well at that.
However, I digress. Reference to the Kline influence over Khan has already been stated by others. That cost us, arguably, the best Fulham manager in recent years in Slavisa Jokanovic.
Let’s not forget Tony Khan’s insistence pre-season that Fulham had a squad capable of playing in the Premiership, would not be signing a lot of new additions, was not in the business of nurturing other club’s players etc-only to do a complete turnaround and sign a raft of new players -who all replaced the ones previously deemed Premiership proof-and included the Loftus Cheek signing designed to nurture him back to full fitness and confidence. At the time, we were all so glad to see this reversal of Khan’s recruitment policy that we ignored the blatant inconsistency in this guy’s management of transfers.
Amidst all of that activity, we failed to sign a striker. Three central defenders, three full backs, two midfielders, zero strikers!
That is a decision that will see us, bar a miracle, relegated once more.
The Financial Fair Play limit is a fact of footballing life. It’s not something new. It is something that has to be factored into a club’s financial forecasting reports well in advance of any season. It hasn’t suddenly crept up and surprised Tony Khan. So, did he simply ignore these rules during the summer window, knowing that there would be no further transfer activity in January? It seems unlikely given Parker’s utterances about the need for a striker, wanting to see any new arrival come in early (albeit he said this with two weeks of the window already passed) etc
As fans, we live and breathe Fulham Football Club. We get nervous ahead of games, we have highs and lows during games, we suffer after defeats. It’s part of our DNA. We stay loyal to one club for our lifetime. I don’t think Tony Khan quite gets this. We have a right to our say and a deserved right to know how our club is being managed. Every single Fulham supporter knows that Cavaleiro is not the answer to our lack of goals. Every single supporter fully expected, along with the manager, for this to be addressed during the January window. Days, weeks of wondering who might be signed -only to discover, finally, that, in fact, we are, financially, not in. position to sign anybody. Whatever the reasons, and I fully get that Covid has destroyed match day income, Tony Khan should have let us all know.
Better still, he should have brought in one less full back or central defender in the summer and brought in a striker.
Re your original question, I don’t think Maja is the quality we need, given some of the other players that we have been linked to. However, right now, I think we would all prefer to see him rather than continue with Cavaleiro.
However, if we compare Maja to Mitrovic, there is no comparison. Mitro is, head and shoulders, a better class of player. So, a fully motivated Mitrovic would be my choice to start against West Brom.
See that West Brom have signed Diagne on loan from Galatasaray. 6ft 3ins, powerful striker.
They say he is eligible to play against us. Just what we need!!!
Given our previous dealings with Galatasaray, surely this could have been an option for us?
Good article Louis.
The bottom line in relation to Fulham is that Tony Khan is the problem. Before you can solve any problem you initially have to recognise what that problem is. As I say our problem is Tony Khan big time.